[ET Net News Agency, 12 March 2026] Reports indicate that three more vessels have been
attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the International Energy Agency (IEA) announcing
the release of 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, and US President Trump
proposing the deployment of US reserves, market fears over a possible blockade of the
strait remain unassuaged. Overnight, oil prices spiked once again, dragging down US
equities. Asia-Pacific bourses collectively tumbled more than 1%, the Shanghai Composite
lost 0.6%, and Hong Kong stocks saw "Lobster" concept shares fade, with losses widening
throughout the morning. At midday, the Hang Seng Index stood at 25,579, down 319 points or
1.2%, with main board turnover exceeding HKD 131 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises
Index fell 63 points (0.7%) to 8,641; the Hang Seng Tech Index was down 60 points (1.2%)
at 4,993.

"Mak Ka Ka: Watch the US dollar trend, HSI's main support remains at 25,000"

On Wednesday (11th), Iran launched a large-scale missile attack against Israeli and
other targets. Despite statements by the IEA and President Trump pledging to tap strategic
oil reserves, this has failed to quell expectations of a blockade in the Strait. Oil
prices soared overnight, exerting heavy pressure on US stocks. The Hong Kong market
initially ticked higher before swiftly turning lower, with the Hang Seng Index widening
its losses to over 300 points. Mak Ka Ka, Head of Financial Products Trading and Research
Department of SinoPac Securities (Asia), told ET Net News Agency that announcements
regarding oil reserve releases have not been able to ease concerns around a potential
disruption in the Strait, reflecting continued market caution and underlying US inflation
risks. Mak expects the HSI to remain volatile between 25,500 and 26,000 intraday. She
notes the market is largely focused on oil prices given the ramifications for US inflation
expectations. Should the US dollar strengthen, this would reduce the attractiveness of
Hong Kong equities and other emerging markets, exerting further pressure on the HSI.
However, for the time being, fund flows do not signal an abrupt deterioration in
sentiment: Mak sees the 250-day moving average or the 25,000 mark as the medium-term
battleground.
According to a Bloomberg report, Trump is considering reinstating a series of trade
investigations, potentially paving the way for new tariffs. Mak notes that should Trump
invoke Section 301, the focus would be on probing excess industrial capacity. A hearing is
expected before May, but past rounds of tariffs have not resulted in overcapacity in
sectors such as semiconductors, steel, or glass, so market reaction has been muted.
Financial markets have long grown accustomed to Trump's tricks, so the impact should be
limited.

"Laopu Gold strong results expected but limited upside story, heavy overhang caps share
price"

New blue-chip entrant Laopu Gold (06181) issued a positive profit alert yesterday,
projecting net profit of around RMB 4.8-4.9 billion for the year, a year-on-year increase
of 226% to 233%. The company attributed this to enhanced brand influence creating a
commanding market position and driving substantial revenue growth both online and offline.
Despite the upbeat guidance, the share price has not surged. Mak believes Laopu Gold's
profit growth was largely priced in. From a fundamentals perspective, both new store
openings and like-for-like sales improved, demonstrating textbook "volume and price
growth", which could provide near-term support, with an upside target around the 100-day
moving average of HKD 690. However, she is cautious on the medium-term, observing that
since January's pullback from the HKD 890 peak, many shareholders remain trapped. Whenever
the share price approaches these overhang levels, selling pressure emerges, and even
strong results will take time to work through this supply.
Laopu Gold began paying dividends last year, with the current price implying a yield
above 2.5%. While Mak is positive on the company's earnings prospects, it remains a growth
stock. Even with substantial profit growth, a significant dividend hike is unlikely; the
current high yield also owes much to the price pullback, so the stock should not be viewed
purely as a yield play.
Over a longer time frame, aside from a brief stint above the "gold bottom" late last
year, Laopu Gold spent most of the last three quarters oscillating between HKD 600 and HKD
900. Mak does not expect the stock to break back above HKD 1,000 in the long term; like
other retail names, growth inevitably moderates after a certain point. With a large base,
both store count and revenue growth will slow as the company faces the law of large
numbers. The "story" potential now returns to the fundamentals, and Mak's overall view
remains neutral.